Today is Tech Thursday, the day of the week where I speak on all things tech related. Today I want to talk about why It is very possible for the price of bitcoin to hit $10,000 or more before the Hardfork into segwit2x on the November the 16th. In addition I want to give you guys my expectations for how the price of bitcoin will move over the next 2 weeks.
To see how a Bitcoin valuation of $10,000 isn’t unreasonable, let’s first take a look at its most recent Hardfork into Bitcoin Gold. The price for bitcoin began to rocket upwards just about a week before the Hardfork, taking the price from about $5,200 to a high around $6,100 in a matter of days. Although this high tapered off during the last few days before the fork, the price remained relatively lofty, in the upper $5,000 range. We saw this same exact sort of run up with Bitcoin Cash as well over the summer when it made an $800 upward price swing that started about 2 weeks before the fork. So we need to start recognizing these patterns and applying them to future forks like the one we have coming up in just 2 short weeks. Both of these pre-fork price movements earned us strong returns, but a $10,000 price tag? From SegWit2x? How is that possible?
Well first we need to establish some foundations for this argument. What do we know about how Bitcoin grows in value? We know that fundamentally, we should expect to see the price increase as adoption increases and yet, that has not been the case for this 2017 price run. We were seeing about a quarter of a million transactions a day on the blockchain at the beginning of the year and 10 months in, we are still seeing roughly a quarter of a million bitcoin transactions a day. So if adoption has really been skyrocketing why aren’t we saying a marked increase in transactions? Valuing Bitcoin just doesn’t make sense looking through this lens. Instead let’s look at the price of Bitcoin as being affected by 2 things. Media Coverage and Hard Forks.
We all know that the media and news stories published about bitcoin have affected its price throughout the year. Remember when Jamie Dimon downed bitcoin and the price fell? Remember when china pulled out of the bitcoin market and the prices plummeted? Every time people like Bill Gates and John MacAfee tout Bitcoin as the future, the prices jump. We are talking about an asset that’s price is undeniably linked to the news coverage it receives. So if we take a look at Bitcoin Gold. The hard fork received almost no news coverage until a week or two before the fork and that was enough to help boost the price a whopping 17% during the run up to October 24th. Bitcoin Cash received much more news coverage approaching its fork as it was one of the first major hardforks of Bitcoin, and this increased news coverage helped the price of Bitcoin skyrocket approximately 40% in the weeks leading up to the fork.
But the news coverage of both of these Hardforks pales in comparison to the news coverage that SegWit2x has received. Whether you are a pro2x or no2x supporter, the amount of articles, videos, podcasts, and reports discussing the upcoming fork and its effects has to be blowing you away. I mean the stuff is everywhere and we have been seeing it for months! So why can’t we expect to see major growth as a result of this coverage? It only makes sense, and would be following the patterns previously established by other hard forks. This week we were almost 3 weeks out from the segwit2x fork when prices began to rapidly increase, we still have 2 weeks until the fork and we have already experienced a growth of about 25% in price from the upper $5,000 price region to 7,250. As news coverage intensifies and more investors are made aware of the impending fork, and what it could mean for the future of BTC why can’t that number grow to a much higher percentage, say 50 or 60%? A 60% increase from the upper $6,000’s would bring us pretty close to the $10,000 price level.
The second thing that clearly has an effect on Bitcoin’s price is hard forks. Investors are beginning to view hard forks as dividend payments. Free money. Airdropped to them for being a loyal supporter of BTC. This “free money” will always draw in investors who want to make a quick buck as well, and the price of Bitcoin approaching its hardforks has reflected this. Except in the past we were feeling the price increase as people anticipated what is essentially highend altcoins with minimal value in comparison to Bitcoin. BCC is valued around $400, and BTG is valued around $100. This time, things are different, this time the forked coin is earning monster valuations. Bitfinex opened the segwit2x coin for futures trading last month and it reached a high of $2,700.
In addition, investors aren’t just buying bitcoin this time to get a free dividend payment, they are buying because they want a chance to receive what may be the future core bitcoin. For this reason, many current bitcoin holders will not be willing to sell their coins, because why sell when you will be receiving what may be the bitcoin of the future for free. Since there will be less Bitcoin available on the market, interested buyers will be forced to pay more and more premium prices to obtain it. This will drive the price to incredible highs!
So when it comes to hard forks, whether you think that Bitcoin’s price is mainly effected by news or mainly effected by the perceived value of the new forked currency you have to admit that there is massive growth potential for bitcoin looming on the horizon. There is exponentially more news coverage this time around and a much higher valuation for SegWit2x coins than any of it’s predecessors.
So now lets talk price action. What is going to go down over the next few weeks? Before I give you my opinion, I just want to make it clear that I am not advising you financially, and that I have been wrong before. So please understand that this is just my opinion and you should not go and bet the bank without doing your own research.
Okay, so we have already seen a run up to $7,250 over the past few days. An increase of almost 25%, so now what? Well, this movement was parabolic in nature, especially last nights price action, so don’t expect this trend to continue forever, even in a bubbly market like Bitcoins its just not gunna happen. We should see the price of Bitcoin continue to rise slowly through the week and into the weekend staying relatively flat. There is a strong chance we will hit all time highs around Saturday or Sunday. For the past 3 weeks in a row BTC has topped out at all time highs during the weekend, and this pattern should continue.
However starting early next week, we should see the price of bitcoin begin to correct a little and fall off slightly, possibly receding to the low or mid $6,000 level. If that is the case, it would be an ideal entry point, as somewhere around the 11th or 12th of november, the price should quickly recover and rocket upwards all the way up until the day before the fork. Here is where it is very possible that we will see prices near or above the $10,000 range. As we hit the 15th of the month there might be some retracting price action but over all prices will be very high all the way up to the actual fork. After the fork, who knows what will happen? One thing that is certain though is that the price of bitcoin will pull back sharply and lord knows where it will settle. So guys, get prepared, do your research, fund your accounts, make sure that you have a gameplan together and stick to it. These next few weeks will be some of the most exciting we have ever experienced and I’m personally going to have a blast!
Don’t forget! After the hardfork there will be no replay protection, not even opt-in protection. So be careful with your BTC and stay safe!!!